Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) are methods used in intelligence analysis that enhance objectivity, mitigate the many biases out there, and hopefully improve decision-making. These techniques provide structured guidance to organizing the immense data available, generating hypotheses, and evaluating uncertainty. By applying SATs, analysts can reduce biases, enhance collaboration, and improve the overall reliability of assessments. This makes them essential tools in the complex, high-stakes game we know as the intelligence career.
Some Examples –
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) – Used to evaluate multiple explanations for an event or situation by weighing evidence against each hypothesis systematically. This emphasizes disproving weaker hypotheses, reducing cognitive biases like confirmation. Analysts will list all plausible explanations, test against each with available evidence, and eliminate those that are inconsistent with others. This method ensures a more objective, evidence-based assessment.
System 1 Thinking – Fast, intuitive, and automatic decision-making. It relies on past experiences to make quick judgements with minimal effort. While it is efficient for routing decisions and pattern recognition, this thinking is also prone to cognitive biases. Relying solely on system 1 can lead to flawed assessments in which snap judgements may overlook critical details or alternative perspectives. Effective usage of system 1 requires the involvement of system 2.
System 2 Thinking – Deliberate, slow, and analytical. It requires conscious effort, critical evaluation and logical reasoning. This type of thinking is essential for complex problem-solving, assessing uncertainty, and avoiding cognitive biases. It helps analysts to systematically evaluate evidence, challenge assumptions, and apply SATs to produce more objective assessments. Due to its mentally taxing effects, it requires the involvement of System 1 thinking.